Iran

It looks like that Reza Aslan and Trita Parsi were having tea together a few days ago discussing the recent movement and vending their frustration and in the process discovered it was all exiles' and their neo-con backers' fault!!! Reza and Trita: I understand your frustration but you are aiming it at the wrong target. Exiles have virtually no effect on what's going on except that they give moral support through their demonstrations abroad which by the way has been very effective in a positive sense. Stop blaming the victim instead of the perpetrator.

  

 

Security Apparatus versus Pasdaran

I am not so much into conspiracy theories but the mass movement in Iran appears to be a revolt led by regime's intelligentsia, of course with active participation by large segments of the population. I cannot imagine such large scale operation and the organization behind could have taken place without tacit consent of key elements within regime's security apparatus and propaganda machine. The movement has obvious support among key clerics and the new class of technocrats whose father figure (or godfather if you will) is Rafsanjani. Whoever not already on-board the steamroller will be flattened. There was a time Khamanei could have jumped on-board but he decided not to. There is no reason why the steamroller should stop now for Khamanei. The movement has obviously targeted the power seeking Pasdaran elements without whom Khamanei is a nobody anyways. Each passing day he is proving to be less and less relevant.

The regime has been worried about a "velvet revolution" in Iran for several years. These worries were apparently not totally baseless.

  

 

Not What It Was Supposed to Be

It was supposed to be the perfect script. Mousavi’s victory was supposed to be hailed as the indication of Iranian rulers having “unclenched their fist”. It was supposed to be the perfect time for reconciliation with Mullahs. It was supposed to be the clearest sign yet of the success of Obama administration’s soft spoken approach towards the Muslim world. It was supposed to be the time for celebration of the Obama effect.

Ahmadinejad’s coup d'état changed the game altogether. It sent all the deal-makers and rapprochement enthusiasts of Washington think-tanks back to the drawing board.

The most important foreign policy implication is that the coup d'état government is dead serious about going nuclear. Any “grand-bargain” between Washington and Tehran under Mousavi would have led to concessions on Iran’s nuclear program. This would have been unacceptable for the Pasdaran commanders who will not be content with any less position than the one enjoyed by their Pakistani counterparts.

As the western governments and in particular US will be wrestling with the question of legitimacy versus negotiations, the coup d'état government will use the time to make as much progress as possible in its nuclear program. Unlike what many might think, the coup d'état government will in fact embrace doubts on its legitimacy to further complicate the issue and seize on it as an opportunity to blame the West for interference in Iranian domestic affairs. As the game continues, Israel will see no choice but to bomb Iranian nuclear facilities. What will happen next is anyone’s guess.

This is all obviously conditioned on the success of the coup d'état which by no means is a given at this time. The arrests made by the coup d'état government yesterday has no significance other than a show of force. Rafsanjani is the only person who, as the head of the assembly of experts, has the authority to remove Khamenei from power. He has the will but the question is whether he has enough number of votes (i.e. enough support among clerics). Many believe that he is in Qom to make such assessment. Additionally, such high risk move has a chance of success only against the backdrop of mass dissatisfaction with the election results and at least some support from the armed and security forces.

A velvet change is underway. Whether it turns out to be a velvet revolution or velvet coup d'état remains to be seen.

  

 

From Theocracy To Junta

Yesterday even before the news of Ahmadinejad's win was released I declared in my blog that something funny was going on. Today it is even more evident that something really really funny is going on. Rafsanjani's house is apparently surrounded by security forces. Let's face it Rafsanjani has the most to lose here. His and his sons head is on the line. If there is any chance that this trend is going to be reversed, Rafsanjani will be the key player. Today is the day that the Islamic Republic officially transformed from a theocracy supported by Pasdaran to a Junta supported by a handful of clerics. Whether or not the mullahs who were apparently outraged by Ahmadinejad's statements during televised debates sit on the sideline and watch remains to be seen. The people should not become pawns in this power game.

  

 

The fake Velvet revolution is under way in Iran!

Rafsanjani's letter to Khamenei, gathering of the crowd with green banners outside the Ministry of Interior, and the warning issued by the Revolutionary Guard Corps are these all indications of a fake velvet revolution to replace Ahmadinejad and even perhaps Khamenei with Mir Hossein Mousavi (Iran's prime minister during the 1980s, the worst years of terror and repression) and Rafsanjani and call it a new era?!! These are more speculations at this time but something funny is happening!

  

 

Iranian Presidential Election, 2009

Watch the debates (1), (2). Four sentences suffice.

Mir Hossein Mousavi: Sent by Rafsanjani's Mafia to take back power especially now that there is prospect of negotiation with the U.S.
Ahmadinejad: A Paasdaar
Karrubi: A total idiot who is corrupt to his teeth.
Rezai: also run (Nokhodi)

For people who want to vote take your pick.

  

 

It’s a shame to watch these characters for Iranian presidential election when Iran has people who are truly qualified to lead the country.